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Data Category: Aggregate Resource Supply and Demand Forecasts
Data Release Agencies: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan
Data Item:Economic forecast

1.Data Compiling and Release Agencies:

   *Release Agency:Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
   *Data Compiling Agency:Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
   *Tel No.:886-2-2380-3494
   *Fax No.:886-2-2380-3502
   *Email:ilgb@dgbas.gov.tw

2.Release Form

 (1)Oral:
     *Press Conference or Briefing:YesNone

 (2)Written:

     *Press Release:YesNone

     *Statistic Tables:None.

     *BooksNone.

 (3)Online

     *Online Press Releases, Table, Book or Database, URL1:https://eng.stat.gov.tw/lp.asp?ctNode=2008&CtUnit=1016&BaseDSD=7&mp=5

     *Online Press Releases, Table, Book or Database, URL2:None.

     *Online Press Releases, Table, Book or Database, URL3:None.

     *Online Press Releases, Table, Book or Database, URL4:None.

     *Floppy Disk:YesNone
     *Disc:YesNone
     *Other:None.

3.the Data Scope, Periodicity and Timeliness

     *Coverage and Object:
The data covers the aggregate supply and demand of the whole nationwide territory, including the economic growth and its components such as the economic activities of consumption, investments, exports and imports.

     *Statistical Standard Time:
Quarterly and annual economic forecasts for the upcoming 3 to 6 quarters.

     *Definition of Statistical Items:
(1)Aggregate Supply: The domestic and foreign usable resources for the national economy during a period of time. The domestic resources are gross domestic product, produced by kind of activity foreign resources come from imports of goods and services.
(2)Aggregate Demand: The resources demanded by the whole economy during a period of time, including private and government final consumption, investments and exports.
(3)National Aggregate Supply and Demand Forecasts (economic forecasting): The prediction of national aggregate supply and demand in the future, for the reference of the government budget compilation.
(4)Definition about statistical items: See FAQ on the website of DGBAS. (https://eng.stat.gov.tw/lp.asp?ctNode=5712&CtUnit=1840&BaseDSD=7)

     *Statistical Unit:
(1)Price (current prices/chained dollars): NT million dollars
(2)Increase/growth rate or percentage: %
(3)Reference year: 2016

     *Statistical Classification:
The forecast of expenditure items include private final consumption, government final consumption, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories, and imports and exports of goods and services.

     *Release Periodicity(the frequency of data compilation or producing, such as month, quarter, year, etc.):Quarterly.

     *Timeliness (the interval between the end of statistical standard time and data release time):
The upcoming 3 to 6 quarters economic forecast will be released by the end of the second month after the quarter.

     *Major Change:
(1)In order to develop the national construction and efficiently utilize the national resources, DGBAS set up the National Aggregate Supply and Demand Forecasts task-force, Executive Yuan in 1968. The task-force built the macro-econometric model, following by the Keynesian theory, to predict the possible trend of future economy every year.
(2)To display the quarterly variations, and promoting the using convenience DGBAS changed the release periodicity from yearly to quarterly in 1978.
(3)In order to continuously strengthen the forecast performance, DGBAS regularly revises the model based on the latest economic situation and policies to reflect the current economic situation and improve the accuracy.

4.Release Information

     *Announce Release Date in Advance:
(1)The upcoming 3 to 6 quarters economic forecasts, reviewed by the National Accounts Statistics Committee, will be released by the end of the second month after the quarter.

     *Simultaneously Send Unit:
The website of DGBAS is https://eng.dgbas.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=2 and National Statistics, R.O.C. (Taiwan) is https://eng.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=5.

5.Data Quality

     *Statistical Methodology and Source Data:
(1) Methodology: Economic forecast predicts the possible trend of future economy by using the available information. According to the correlation between economic variables and economics characteristics of the economy, DGBAS established the simultaneous-equation econometric model to solve the endogenous variables through assuming exogenous variables. Also, external information beyond the model is appropriately considered.
(2) Exogenous variables setting
(i) Policy variable setting:
(a) Government final consumption and fixed investment: According to the budgets of all-level government, cumulative encumbrances over the years, and the budgets implementation in recent years.
(b) Public enterprises fixed investment: According to the expenditure prediction of main state-owned enterprises, the fixed investment plans of state-owned enterprise budgets of the central government, the previous year budget balance, and the budgets implementation in recent years.
(c) Discount rates of the Central Bank: Based on the level at the time of forecasting.
(ii) Other exogenous variables:
(a) The economic growth rate of the United States, Japan and Mainland China: Refer to the latest forecast data of IHS Markit, and the relevant indicators recently released by these countries.
(b) International petroleum price: Refer to the U.S. Energy Administration (EIA) and IHS Markit forecasting the petroleum of supply, demand, and price trends.
(3) Data sources:
(i)Economic growth rate of major countries: Official statistics of each country and latest forecast data of IHS Markit.
(ii)National Accounts: National Accounts Statistics of DGBAS
(iii)Price: Price Statistics Monthly of DGBAS
(iv)Financial Data: Financial Statistical Monthly of Central Bank, R.O.C.
(v)Labor Data: Monthly Bulletin of Manpower Statistics, Monthly Earnings and Productivity Statistics of DGBAS, and Monthly Bulletin of Labor Statistics of Ministry of Labor.
(vi)OtherĄG Macro Database of DGBAS. (Website: https://statdb.dgbas.gov.tw/pxweb/Dialog/statfile1L.asp?lang=1&strList=L)

     *the Mechanism to Ensure the Reliability and Accuracy:
The correlation between exogenous variables and endogenous variables presented in the behavior equations of the macro-econometric model is based on the recent development of economic theories, and is incorporated into the model after proper statistical testing. As for the definition and identity relationship between the variables, it must be compiled according to the recent System of National Accounts stipulated by the United Nation.

6.Remarks and Advance Notice of Related Changes:
None.

7.Other Announcements

     *Notes:
1.The release information will be announced on the DGBAS release schedule five work days prior to the release date. 2.The release time would be postponed due to the meeting time of evaluation committee extended.

     *Regulatory StatusYes No
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